Vietnam Economic Growth Report 2025

Vietnam’s Economy 2025: Strong Momentum, Prudent Optimism

GDP expanded 7.96% y/y in Q2; H1 growth reached 7.52%—the strongest first-half since 2011—driven by services and manufacturing. Inflation remains contained, unemployment low, and FDI inflows robust despite external headwinds.

GDP Growth (H1 2025)
7.52%
Highest H1 since 2011
Q2 2025 GDP (y/y)
7.96%
Broad-based in industry & services
Inflation (Jun 2025)
3.57%
Within 3–4.5% target
Unemployment (Q1 2025)
2.20%
Historically low
FDI Total (H1 2025)
US$21.51b
+32.6% y/y
Retail Sales (Q1 2025)
US$66.83b
+9.9% y/y
Summary: Vietnam’s robust start to 2025 is anchored in resilient domestic fundamentals—low unemployment, contained inflation, and strong FDI—while external risks from trade tensions and tariffs weigh on the outlook. Government targets (8.3–8.5%) exceed most international forecasts (5.2–6.6%), calling for cautious optimism.

Methodology

This dashboard synthesizes publicly available statistics and reputable institutional forecasts to present a concise and interactive view of Vietnam’s 2025 economic performance.

  • Scope: Macroeconomic indicators (GDP growth, inflation, unemployment), capital flows (FDI), and sectoral context (services, manufacturing, retail).
  • Sources: IMF, ADB, World Bank, Vietnam GSO, Trading Economics, Vietnam Investment Review, and other cited outlets (see References).
  • Processing: Figures are normalized to percent or USD where applicable; H1 denotes first half of calendar year. Forecasts are labeled distinctly from actuals.
  • Visualization: Custom SVG charts (no frameworks) with responsive scaling, tooltips, and export-to-PNG utilities.
  • Quality: Cross-checked figures against at least two sources where possible; discrepancies noted in footnotes if relevant.

Key Findings

Growth Momentum

Q2 growth accelerated to 7.96% y/y, lifting H1 2025 to 7.52%—a post-2011 high. Services and manufacturing were principal drivers, underpinned by resilient domestic demand and export competitiveness.

Macro Stability

Inflation at 3.57% in June remains within the 3–4.5% comfort zone; unemployment at 2.20% reflects a tight labor market. Policy space remains available should global shocks intensify.

Key Economic Indicators 2025

GDP Growth: 2025 Quarterly & H1
Actual (y/y)
H1 Average
Inflation: 2025 Actuals vs Forecasts
Actual
IMF 2025
ADB 2025
Unemployment Gauge (Q1 2025)
FDI Inflows 2025
Registered (Jan–May)
Disbursed (Jan–May)
Total (H1)

Sectoral Analysis

Primary Growth Drivers

  1. Services sector remained the largest GDP contributor.
  2. Manufacturing continued its recovery and expansion.
  3. Export industries acted as the economy’s backbone despite global frictions.
  4. Banking sector projected earnings +17% in 2025 with system-wide credit +15%.

Retail Performance

Retail sales reached 1.708 quadrillion VND (US$66.83b) in Q1 2025, up 9.9% y/y, supported by low unemployment and steady real incomes amid controlled inflation.

Challenges and Risk Factors

  • Global trade tensions and US tariffs weigh on export-oriented firms.
  • Geopolitical instability raises uncertainty and risk premiums.
  • FDI overdependence and inflation vigilance flagged by experts.
  • Macro stability must be preserved: avoid excess public debt and overheating.

Policy Watch

Authorities aim to diversify export markets, bolster domestic demand, and maintain policy flexibility to cushion global shocks if necessary.

Historical Comparison

Q1 GDP Growth 2020–2025 (y/y)
Q1 Growth

Context

After a 7.1% expansion in 2024, growth started stronger in 2025. While external headwinds may temper full-year performance, long-term fundamentals remain resilient.

  • 2024 GDP growth: 7.1%
  • 2025 growth: potential moderation vs H1 pace due to external factors
  • Structural strengths: competitive exports, FDI pipeline, stable labor market

Economic Outlook and Projections

Near-term Prospects (2025)

Solid baseline growth expected amid uncertainty. Government’s 8.3–8.5% target is ambitious relative to international forecasts (IMF 5.2%, World Bank 5.8%, ADB 6.6%). Parliamentary guidance indicates a 7% to at least 8% range, reflecting confidence but recognizing risks.

2025 GDP Growth Forecasts vs Target
Institutional Forecasts
Gov Target Range

Supporting Factors

  • Robust FDI inflows signal investor confidence.
  • Low unemployment supports consumption.
  • Inflation control preserves purchasing power.
  • Export competitiveness remains intact.
  • Parliamentary support for higher growth ambitions.

Risk Mitigation

  • Diversify export markets and supply chains.
  • Strengthen domestic demand via targeted fiscal measures.
  • Maintain macro stability and policy buffers.

Takeaway

Cautious optimism is warranted: upside from FDI and services could offset external headwinds, but achieving 8%+ will require benign external conditions and effective policy execution.

Interactive Dataset

Indicator Period Value Notes / Source
GDP GrowthQ1 20256.9%y/y growth
GDP GrowthQ2 20257.96%y/y growth
GDP GrowthH1 20257.52%Highest H1 since 2011
InflationMay 20253.24%IMF/ADB range 2.9–4.0%
InflationJun 20253.57%Highest since start of year
Inflation Forecast (IMF)20252.9%IMF projection
Inflation Forecast (ADB)20254.0%ADB projection
UnemploymentQ1 20252.20%Down from 2.22% in Q4 2024
FDI RegisteredJan–May 2025US$18.4b+51% y/y
FDI DisbursedJan–May 2025US$8.9b
FDI TotalH1 2025US$21.51b+32.6% y/y
Retail SalesQ1 2025US$66.83b1.708 quadrillion VND; +9.9% y/y

Conclusion

Vietnam’s 2025 performance underscores resilience and growth potential. With low unemployment, contained inflation, and strong FDI inflows, the economy is well-positioned for sustained development. The ambitious government target (~8%+) contrasts with more conservative international projections, suggesting a balanced stance of aspiration and prudence.

The government’s determination to reach 8% in 2025 aims to set the stage for higher growth in subsequent years; execution and external conditions will be pivotal.

Sources and Citations

1. Trading Economics - Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate
2. International Monetary Fund - Vietnam Country Profile
3. World Economics - Vietnam GDP Estimates
4. Government of Vietnam - General Statistics Office
5. Wikipedia - Economy of Vietnam
6. IMF - Vietnam and the IMF
7. FocusEconomics - Vietnam Economic Indicators
8. National Statistics Office of Vietnam - Economic Reports
9. VietnamNet - Economic News and Analysis
10. IMF - Article IV Mission Reports
11. Vietnam Briefing - Economic Analysis
12. Vietnam Investment Review - FDI Statistics
13. Trading Economics - Vietnam FDI
14. White & Case - Regional Economic Outlook
15. Vietnam Economic Times
16. Asian Development Bank - Vietnam Country Partnership
17. Ministry of Planning and Investment - Vietnam

Appendices

Appendix A: Historical Q1 GDP Growth (2020–2025)
  • 2020: 3.21%
  • 2021: 4.85%
  • 2022: 5.42%
  • 2023: 3.46%
  • 2024: 5.98%
  • 2025: 6.93% (Q1)
Appendix B: Forecast & Target Notes

Forecasts reflect baseline assumptions by institutions (IMF, ADB, World Bank). Government target range (8.3–8.5%) and parliamentary guidance (7% to ≥8%) are policy aspirations and may differ from realized outcomes depending on global conditions and policy implementation.